The John's Smith's Grand
National Launch took place in London today when the weights for the world's
most famous chase, run at Aintree on April 6, were unveiled.
Phil Smith, Head of Handicapping at
the British Horseracing Authority, talked of his role of drawing up the weights
for the 2013 John Smith's Grand National, run over 30 fences and four miles,
three furlongs and about 110 yards.
Asked by host Clare
Balding why he had put last year's third Seabass on 11st 2lb as against 10st 12
in 2012, Smith replied: "Is this the same Seabass who is the 14/1
favourite?
"The last four
winners have all carried 11st or over, Seabass was third last year and horses
have a really good record when they come back and run in the race a second
time. I would have thought he had a reasonably good chance and so do the
bookmakers.
"I have given Tidal
Bay (the top-weight with 11st 10lb) a good chance too. His real rating is 171
and he has achieved that twice this year in the Hennessy and the Lexus. In this
race, he is going to run off a mark of 162. The thinking behind this is if he
can replicate his run in the Lexus and the Hennessy, he has a chance of winning.
"The problem is that
it is a completely different race to those two - it is nearly four and a half
miles and 30 fences. If I had left him on 171, he would have probably have had
to perform to 180 to win it - he is a 12-year-old and I don't think anyone
believes he could perform to that level.
"So I have compressed
his weight and that of some of the others at the top of the handicap, indeed
down to Prince De Beauchene.
"The top three in the
weights (Tidal Bay, Albertas Run and Imperial Commander) are fantastic horses
and they have won 10 Grade One races between them.
"We always want high
quality horses to run in the John Smith's Grand National and set the high
standard that the race deserves. We definitely have that this year.
"I didn't think I would
ever have a Cheltenham Gold Cup winner who was not top-weight or second
top-weight. Imperial Commander has 11st 6lb and who is to say how good he is
because we have only seen him once in the last two years.
"Imperial Commander
is one of the three horses who was most difficult to assess. His comeback run
was not as good as he previously achieved - how do we know whether he will
progress from that or if that is his new level?
"The other difficult
ones were down towards the bottom of the handicap, Wyck Hill (10st 4lb) and The
Rainbow Hunter (10st 2lb). Wyck Hill won at Ascot a few months ago which looked
a nothing race at the time and I only put him up 4lb as there were three
finishers. But the second horse Katenko has gone onwards and upwards since.
"I have already put
up Wyck Hill twice for standing in his box and I did wonder long and hard
whether I should put him up for a third time, but I have only done that once
before and there would have to be absolutely exceptional circumstances. His form
looks fantastic and I believe he runs in the next few days.
"The Rainbow Hunter
is almost a carbon copy of Wyck Hill. The difference is he pulled up after his
win in which the second, third and fourth have all come out and won so the form
of his victory is great. He pulled up at Chepstow in heavy ground but I would
pull up there."
Nigel Twiston-Davies, the most successful
current trainer in the John Smith's Grand National with two successes, said:
"We don't know yet whether Imperial Commander will run.
"Phil Smith is a
pussycat - he has been so kind to Imperial Commander (11st 6lb). We are heading
for the Cheltenham Gold Cup and if for some reason he does not run in it or
whatever then the John Smith's Grand National will be one hell of a consolation
prize.
"Little Josh has not
qualified and will not run, while my other two (Major Malarkey and Viking
Blond) are too low in the weights."
Jonjo O'Neill, who sent out Don't Push
It to victory in 2010 and had Sunnyhillboy beaten by a nose last year, has five
possibles.
The trainer said: "I
think it was a dead-heat last year - the camera was in the wrong place!
"Sunnyhillboy is in
great form - he had a few problems but is fine now after pulling up sore last
time out at Chepstow where the ground was very heavy.
"He goes to
Cheltenham, where he will run over hurdles or fences, and then go straight to
Aintree for the John Smith's Grand National.
"He went to Aintree
in great shape last year and is a pretty good jumper though he is not the
biggest horse in the world - I hope he will be in the same form this year.
"Albertas Run is a
star and has been brilliant for us in our yard for years - ever since he was a
bumper horse. He is in great old form at the moment - hopefully, ground
permitting, he will run for the first time this season in the Ryanair Chase at
Cheltenham.
"He needs sunshine
and good ground. He is 12 now but I wouldn't mind riding him in a Grand
National!
"Lost Glory is a
horse who improved through the summer and you cannot knock him. He likes decent
ground which is why I gave him a winter holiday. We were surprised when he won
in quite soft ground one day - he jumps, keeps galloping, is tough and honest.
"Alfie Sherrin was
third in last year's Irish National and could go back there but, you never
know, we may aim him at Aintree as he jumps and stays well. He is a fair horse
on his day.
"Mister Hyde jumps
well but was disappointing at Sandown the other day. He looked very good a
Kempton but I don't think that was a strong race."
Tim Vaughan, who trains in Wales, has
three possible contenders. He said: "Beshabar was a bit slow in his
jumping on his debut for us at Cheltenham but he has improved dramatically
since.
"Jumping is one of
his strengths these days. I would love to think he could win the John Smith's
Grand National - he has had his issues and is quite a fragile horse but has a
hell of an engine and would have a fine chance if he rocks up in the same form
as when he won the Scottish National."
Former jockey David
Bridgwater, second on Encore Un Peau in the 1996 Grand National, spoke
about his entry Wyck Hill and said: "It is brilliant training The Giant
Bolster and Wyck Hill at the same time.
"I have had them from
when they were unbroken - The Giant Bolster as a three-year-old and Wyck Hill
as a four-year-old.
"Wyck Hill was never
going to be a bumper horse or a hurdler and he should probably be unbeaten in
chases except for a silly mishap and, this year, has just gone from strength to
strength.
"If all goes
according to plan, he won't get 10st 4lb next year so it is nice weight to be
on. He goes for the Racing Plus Chase in a fortnight and we will take a view
after that.
"We don't expect free
lunches and it is lovely when we get them and have to make the most of
situations, being a small yard.
"I left school at 14
and joined Lester Piggott's stable and then moved to Nicholson's for jumping as
I got a bit heavy.
"We all aspire to
having a Gold Cup and National winner and I want to win as much as Paul
Nicholls wants to win.
"Having a good horse
is a very good laxative - the build-up to good races is quite nerve
wracking!"
Owner Graham Wylie
boasts a dream hand with three of the leading contenders in the betting in the
Paul Nicholls-trained Tidal Bay and a duo based in Ireland with Willie Mullins,
On His Own and Prince De Beauchene.
"I'd like to say I
planned it six years ago but it's just a complete coincidence - when I bought
them I hoped they would be Gold Cup horses so it's remarkable to have the first
three in the betting for the National," said Wylie.
"I hope they get
there in one piece and you must remember that both Tidal Bay and On His Own
have run before and not finished and then Prince De Beauchene missed the race
last year. It was even more unfortunate because I had auctioned ownership of
the horse for charity but at least I had two other runners I could give for the
day."
Willie Mullins has the best numerical
representation of any trainer with seven entries and, for him, Wylie's pair
stand out.
He said: "Fingers
crossed I can get On His Own and Prince De Beauchene there. They are two huge
horses so I am not worried about the weight. Prince De Beauchene won the
Bobbyjo Chase after the weights came out last year and I hope he does the same
next week. My main concern is not the weight they have but to get them there in
one piece.
"They are better
horses than my 2005 winner Hedgehunter, they are huge, beautiful big horses
that any jockey would love to ride in the race.
"Quel Esprit ran a
cracker in the Hennessy the other day and I was surprised he blew up at the
second last. He's a good jumper and stays all day.
"Quiscover Fontaine
fell at fence 17 last year but he jumped well up to that point. He should get
in this year's race.
"I'm not sure Call
The Police has enough experience. He'll probably go to Cheltenham and then
we'll take a view about Aintree."
Evan Williams has had a first-four
finisher in the last four John Smith's Grand Nationals and is hoping that Cappa
Bleu can continue that record.
"I'm desperate to get
a run into Cappa Bleu," said Williams. "We had always planned to miss
the middle part of winter with him but it would nice to be able to get a run
into him in the next couple of weeks. You just need to get lucky in a National
but things just haven't panned out with him how we would have liked so
far."
David Pipe has four entries but for
him, one of the quartet is a standout. He said: "Of ours, The Package is
the one. The weight is what we were expecting, it's a nice weight, and the
Hennessy form is rock solid. If he runs up to that form, then he has a
chance."
The Tatenen's handler Richard
Rowe commented: "It was very exciting when he ran last year but I
think I should have told Andrew Thornton not to wear his contact lenses as he
ran into the back of some horses. I'll tell him to leave them off this year and
he might get on better!
"Hopefully, he will
come through Saturday at Ascot OK and then we'll look forward to Aintree. The
Tatenen is good enough, but whether Richard Rowe or Andrew Thornton is we'll
have to wait and see. If you keep trying, it can happen for you
eventually."
Gordon Elliott, who won the 2007 John
Smith's Grand National with Silver Birch, has six entries to choose from. He
said: "Jessies Dream has been off since he was second in the RSA Chase two
years ago but he's back working in good form now. He's two or three weeks off a
run in a point-to-point and the Grand National is the plan but he's not an easy
horse to keep sound.
"Chicago Greys has
had a wind operation since last year so he might have improved for that. He
jumps and he stays. He could go for the Cross-Country at Cheltenham
first."
Venetia Williams won the 2009 Aintree
feature with 100/1 chance Mon Mome and is delighted to have a much more obvious
contender this year in Katenko.
"It's hugely
exciting," said Williams. "I bought him in July at Arqana - he wasn't
very expensive at €30,000 - and part of my sales pitch to Andrew Brooks was
that he was qualified to get into the Grand National. Now he doesn't just sneak
in at the bottom but is the fifth or sixth highest-rated horse in the field.
"The Cheltenham Gold
Cup is the plan for him. He's only a seven-year-old but at the same time he's a
big war horse. He nearly t-boned Donald McCain's horse coming down the hill at
Cheltenham the other day but he motored on down the hill."
It is 23 years since Kim
Bailey won the Aintree showpiece with Mr Frisk and he is hoping that The
Rainbow Hunter can prove another flagbearer for his stable in April.
"When I sold him at
Royal Ascot last year I promised his owners he'd win at Ascot in November and
run in the Grand National. I didn't think either would happen but the first one
has come up," recalled Bailey.
"It was filthy ground
when he ran at Chepstow last time but we''ll run him on Saturday at Ascot and
see how he gets on. He's only 16 hands but he's a very athletic little horse,
so who knows. We'll do a lot of schooling beforehand and hopefully he can run a
blinder."
Nigel Roddis, part-owner of Welsh
National runner-up Teaforthree, can scarcely believe he owns a live Aintree
contender.
"He jumps and is
enthusiastic so hopefully he has a serious chance. Chepstow last time was a
dream race but I can't believe he got beat," said Roddis. "His great
attributes are that he jumps and he stay. We only bought this horse to have a
little bit of fun so it really is a dream come true."
Curragh-based Dessie
Hughes, who saddled 2010 runner-up Black Apalachi, has not enjoyed the best
of success in the John Smith's Grand National but is hoping his three
contenders can change his luck this year.
"The ground is the
crucial point for my horses," said Hughes. "Magnanimity and Rare Bob
want goodish ground but Tofino Bay will revel in it if it's heavy. Tofino Bay
has had a couple of years off with a leg so he's only coming good at the age of
10. But he looks to stay all day. He's full of guts and a very good
jumper."
After 52 unsuccessful
runners, champion trainer Paul Nicholls finally came good in last year's
John Smith's Grand National with Neptune Collonges and he believes that - of
his four entries - top-weight Tidal Bay could boast the best chance.
"I think the secret
to winning was that I missed last year's lunch!," joked Nicholls.
"Tidal Bay is obviously in great shape this year and won the Lexus the
other day. He gets in off a 4lb lower mark than in the Hennessy and Graham
(Wylie) and I decided this morning that we'll give it our best shot and aim him
at the race.
"I took him out of
the Gold Cup today and if he's ready he'll go for the World Hurdle but we
wouldn't go there and forego our chance in the National which is our number one
aim. He's 12 now so we've got to give it a chance this year.
"What A Friend has
the same profile as Neptune Collonges last year, having been placed in a Gold
Cup and winning Grade Ones. He could go to Kempton in a couple of weeks'
time but he may miss Cheltenham if he is going to run in the National. You
don't run well in the race if you've had a hard race at Cheltenham.
"We have waited with
him and he's due to go to Doncaster in a couple of weeks. He has some good form
on good ground and I'd say he'd be a definite runner off 10st 2lb.
"Join Together is the
one horse we really set out to aim at the National when they came in at the
start of the season. He's also due to go to Doncaster and could be one who
could run really well.
"Of mine, I'd have to
say that Tidal Bay just has that class and the weight won't be an issue. He
carried that much in the Lexus and more than it in the Hennessy. If he can get
in a rhythm, then he'd have a serious chance."
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